Chinese Youth Unemployment Drops, But Is It for Real?

Shanghai, China’s economic capital and Lujiazui financial district [Photo=EPA·Yonhap News]

After suspending the public release of youth unemployment rates for almost six months, China’s National Bureau of Statistics has announced a drop in the youth jobless rate. However, the lower number might not fully represent the unemployment landscape. The new methodology used to calculate the rate excluded university students who opted for graduate school. Amid the ongoing difficulty in finding jobs, many students are applying to graduate school to “escape” the hiring freeze.

Tsinghua University posted an article titled “Where Did Tsinghua Graduates Go? (5 Questions/5 Answers)” on its official WeChat account on the 17th. The first question was, “Which do you prefer: employment or research?” Tsinghua University responded that 80.8 percent of undergraduates and 12.8 percent of graduate students choose further study over employment.

In the second Q&A, Tsinghua University refuted the rumor that 80 percent of its students who graduated last year chose to continue their education overseas. It claimed that only 8 percent of all its 2023 graduates – undergraduates and graduate students – pursued further studies abroad.

What stands out is that over 80 percent of undergraduates choose to continue their studies at graduate school. This makes the new measurement criteria produce significantly lower figures.

The Bureau published youth unemployment data for the first time since the jobless rate hit a record high (21.3%) in June last year. It announced a 14.9 percent jobless rate for people between 16 and 24 in December. The new method excluded school students from the jobless rate, contributing to over 6 percent drop in six months. It stated that excluding school students will more accurately reflect the employment and unemployment situation of young people entering society.

The new calculation method aligns with the authorities’ intention to lower the youth unemployment rate. However, the revamped jobless figures do not truly glean what’s happening because they fail to accurately reflect the reality of students who choose to continue their studies at graduate school due to the fear of job hunting.

The South China Morning Post (SCMP) also reported today that, according to an analysis of reports released by 24 top Chinese universities, 70 percent of students chose to delay employment and continue their studies last year. The employment rates of students at Fudan University and Tsinghua University were only 18 percent and 15 percent, respectively.

The SCMP explained this is a way young people cope with the difficulty of finding jobs. As students refrain from job hunting, the employment rates of prestigious Chinese universities such as Tsinghua University, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Fudan University, and New York University Shanghai have dropped to record lows.

The youth unemployment rate announced by the National Bureau of Statistics may improve. However, the job market in China is still blurry as social and economic risks remain even as the jobless rate returns.

The president of the Guangdong Reform Institute, a think tank under the Guangdong Provincial Government, pointed out that there are too many factors blocking job creation, including the lack of significant economic improvement, the impact of the rapid growth of the e-commerce sector on the real economy, the trend of companies reducing their workforce due to the development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and the decline in investment in the private sector.