Potential Trump Win Sparks Early US-ROK Defense Cost Negotiations

From the 23rd to the 25th of last month, the 12th US-ROK Special Measures Agreement (SMA) meeting in Honolulu, Hawaii.

Since 1991, the US and South Korea have held 11th Defense Burden Sharing agreements to determine the cost of stationing US forces in Korea. The US put pressure on increasing the contributions during the 12th meeting, held to discuss the cost-sharing from 2026.

According to the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Korea believes that “our Defense Burden Sharing should proceed at a reasonable level to provide a stable stationing environment for US forces in South Korea and enhance the US-ROK joint defense posture.”

The US, however, argues that the Defense Burden Sharing is a “strong investment in the US-ROK alliance.”

Defense Burden Sharing refers to the cost of stationing US forces in South Korea. The burden is divided into personnel, military construction, and military support expenses, with personnel expenses accounting for half.

Until 1991, the US bore most of the stationing costs under Article 5, Section 1 of the US-ROK Status of Forces Agreement. However, in 1991, they reached the Burden Sharing agreement due to the deterioration of the US’s finances and the growth of Korea’s economy.

The contribution started at $150 million in the first year of sharing in 1991 and has increased yearly.

The contribution of about $735 million in 2013 jumped to about $779 million the following year. It continued to rise yearly, reaching about $790 million, about $800 million, about $805 million, and about $813 million until 2018. Then, in 2019, the first year of the 10th agreement, the total defense cost exceeded about $880 million for the first time.

As the defense costs increased significantly, the provision for exceptional cash support in the military construction sector was removed, and all construction support other than the design supervision charge was converted to in-kind support.

After the 11th agreement, it started at about $880 million in 2020 and paid about $1.09 billion last year.

Although the result of the 12th agreement has not been revealed yet, Lieutenant Colonel Matti Minus, a spokesperson for the US Department of Defense, sent an email to the press corps on the last day saying, “The SMA reflects the joint commitment of both countries to ensure a stable stationing environment for US forces in South Korea and maintain a strong joint defense posture.”

Some have pointed out that both countries hurriedly proceeded with the negotiations, keeping in mind the November 2024 United States presidential election result.

This is because former US President Donald Trump is a candidate in the 2024 United States presidential election. During his term in 2019, Trump argued that the Defense Burden Sharing should be increased to about $4.91 billion five times that year.

He argued that “South Korea is a rich country but is freeloading (on the US).”

There is an analysis that they hurried the negotiation beforehand, considering a prediction of increasing the Defense Burden Sharing significantly as in the past in case Trump is re-elected in the 2024 United States presidential election.

At that time, Trump rejected the agreement prepared by the US-ROK delegation, demanding a five-fold increase, which resulted in a gap in the agreement. It was finally reached after the inauguration of the Biden administration in 2021.

It is known that the Biden administration also needs to strengthen security cooperation with South Korea for re-election.

Considering these cases and positions, experts analyze the possibility that a multi-year agreement applied for at least four years has been concluded in this 12th agreement.

Meanwhile, according to the Military Balance 2021 released by the UK’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, the US spent $905.9 billion on defense last year.

China ranked second and appeared to have doubled its defense spending in 2023 compared to 2020. Russia ranked third and saw its defense spending increase by 386% from 2020 to last year due to the 2022 Ukraine war.

Neighboring Japan allocated a record-high defense budget of approximately $50.7 billion (7,9496 trillion JPY) last year.