Is South Korea’s Economy Heading for a Crisis? IMF and UN Think So

IMF Announces South Korea’s National Debt at 55.2%
Various Institutions Express Concern Over South Korea’s Economy

On the 20th, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae Myung pressured the government again over the 250,000 won ($220) livelihood support fund.’ He criticized the government’s stance of saving money due to financial difficulties, calling it an outdated approach from the 70s. However, according to IMF statistics, South Korea’s debt level is dangerously high.

The IMF’s April Fiscal Monitor reported that the ratio of South Korea’s government debt to GDP last year (2023) was a staggering 55.2%. This is a 17.5% increase from 37.7% in 2013, marking the second-largest increase among 11 non-reserve currency countries, following Singapore, which recorded a 63.9% increase.

Non-reserve currency countries refer to the 37 advanced countries that do not hold any of the eight major currencies, such as the dollar, euro, and yen. The government debt mentioned by the IMF includes all debts, including those of non-profit public institutions such as national research institutes, and the national debt (central and local government debt) announced by governments like South Korea. This is the calculation method mainly used for international comparison.

Accordingly, while the national debt ratio announced by the Korean authorities last year was 50.4%, it is calculated as 55.2% according to the IMF’s government debt ratio standards. The problem with the growing debt is that South Korea is a non-reserve currency country.

While reserve currency countries can manage their debts by printing their own money, non-reserve countries like South Korea face greater risks as their currency is not widely used. As of last year, the government debt ratio to GDP of major advanced countries was Japan (252.4%), the United States (122.1%), Germany (64.3%), etc., recording higher figures than South Korea. However, South Korea’s status as a non-reserve currency country could pose future challenges.

Because of this, even Fitch Ratings, which has long evaluated South Korea’s fiscal soundness, warned the Korean authorities.

According to Fitch, South Korea’s national debt has increased rapidly by nearly 50% in a short period, which is a factor that affects South Korea’s national credit rating.

Concerns are growing that a serious red light has been turned on for South Korea’s finances. Furthermore, the UN downgraded South Korea’s economic growth rate this year, indicating that the South Korean economy is facing a crisis overall.

Many media outlets reported that the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) announced the Mid-term Update Report on the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024 to the public on the 16th. According to the report, the UN predicted the global economic growth rate to be 2.7%, a 0.3% increase from the report announced in January. Last January, the UN estimated the world economic growth rate outlook to be 2.4%.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s economic growth outlook was a modest 2.2%. This figure, which marks a 0.2% decrease from the 2.4% projected in a UN report last January, has drawn attention from international media. Similar downward revisions were noted for several African nations, including Egypt and Nigeria.

Various factors contribute to South Korea’s sluggish economic growth and rising national debt, with the critically low birth rate being a significant concern. Recently, South Korea’s birth rate has dropped to a startling 0.6%, the lowest globally. This decline in birth rates leads to a shrinking economically active population, exacerbating labor shortages and posing long-term challenges to economic stability.

As the population decreases, the consumer market will likely contract, adversely impacting the domestic economy. Moreover, the issue of an aging population is increasingly pressing. As the elderly population grows, labor productivity and economic vitality diminish while social security costs, including pensions and healthcare for older people, surge. These factors heighten the risk of a fiscal crisis.

Given these long-predicted demographic shifts, the South Korean government and the National Assembly must draft relevant legislation and take proactive measures to address these challenges.