U.S. Fiscal Outlook and the Risk of Prolonged High Long-Term Interest Rates

Report on the assessment and impact of the U.S. fiscal situation

Amid the severe fiscal deficit in the U.S., analysts warn that if concerns about the imbalance of U.S. Treasury bonds and the government’s long-term borrowing stability lead to an expansion of the term premium, long-term interest rates could remain high for a considerable period, even if the U.S. cuts interest rates.

The International Financial Center stated in its report on ‘Evaluation and Impact of the U.S. Fiscal Situation’ on the 9th, “The U.S.’s expansionary fiscal policy is showing considerable domestic stimulus effects, but the negative effects such as inflation pressure and long-term interest rate increases are also increasing.”

According to the report, the fiscal deficit, which had slightly decreased after the COVID-19 pandemic, expanded again due to reduced tax revenue and increased interest expenses from October 2022 to September 2023, and government debt has risen to an all-time high.

The U.S. fiscal balance saw its deficit expand to a record high of 15% of the GDP ($3.1 trillion) in 2020, but it was halved in 2022, the first year of the Biden administration, and then expanded again in 2023.

Federal government debt increased to a record high of $26.3 trillion in 2023, a 58% increase from 2019. With the expansion of the debt size and the rise in interest rates, the net interest payment, which was $345.5 billion in 2020, nearly doubled to $710 billion in 2023.

Park Mi-jung, a researcher at the International Financial Center, predicted, “It will be difficult to expect a political consensus to improve the U.S.’s fiscal situation in the short term, and the fiscal soundness will inevitably deteriorate in the medium to long term due to factors such as population aging, increased interest expenses, and the impact of Bidenomics investment policies.”

The report judged that the fiscal balance in 2024 could be slightly improved due to the discretionary spending limit under the Fiscal Responsibility Act, increased capital income tax revenue, and resumption of tax payments in disaster areas. Still, the possibility of a fundamental shift in fiscal policy by 2025 is limited.

In the medium to long term, the report predicted that the fiscal deficit would roughly double over the next decade due to population aging, climate change investment, increased interest expenses, and government debt will also increase annually.

The report also suggested that while the U.S.’s expansionary fiscal policy contributes to the robust growth of the U.S. economy, considering the worsening conditions of the Treasury market and excessive government debt, the growth contribution effect will be gradually constrained.

The report explained that there is a concern about a vicious cycle of increasing government debt burden due to the Federal Reserve’s high-interest rate policy and quantitative tightening ($60 billion per month), along with an increase in the amount of government bond issuance, leading to increased pressure on Treasury bond interest rates.

However, the report predicted that even if the economic stimulus effect of government spending decreases from the fourth quarter, the U.S.’s infrastructure investment and job laws (IIJA), response to climate change (IRA), and semiconductor industry policies (CHIPS Act) will support private investment for a considerable period.

Researcher Park cautioned, “As concerns about the U.S.’s fiscal situation are expected to grow in the future, we should be aware of the negative impact on the global financial market and the U.S.’s national credit rating. Even if there is a pivot in monetary policy, long-term interest rates could remain high for a considerable period if concerns about the imbalance of U.S. Treasury bonds and the government’s long-term borrowing stability lead to an expansion of the term premium.”

By. Seo So Jung