Kim Jong Un’s High-Stakes Gamble: Missile Launches Target Trump’s Re-election

North Korea’s repeated emphasis on nuclear threats, including its fifth intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch this year and references to “nuclear attack invincibility,” is said to be influenced by the U.S. presidential election. The argument suggests that North Korea is showcasing its nuclear power to secure a favorable position in nuclear disarmament negotiations, considering the potential re-election success of former President Donald Trump.

On the 22nd, Tae Young Ho, a member of the People’s Power Party and former North Korean diplomat, analyzed on CBS Radio’s Kim Hyun-jung’s News Show that North Korea is consistently sending a message that it can attack the U.S. mainland with nuclear weapons. He said, “Now it’s impossible to dismantle or give up (North Korea’s) nuclear weapons. So they’re continuously sending this message: ‘I can also attack the U.S. with nuclear weapons. Have you seen the success of our solid-fuel engine?'”. He pointed out two notable aspects of recent North Korean missile launches: the rapid advancement of ballistic missile technology and the U.S. elections.

Recently, North Korea successfully launched the solid-fuel-based Hwasong-18. While the April and July launches were tests, the term “launch training” for the 18th’s launch implies that operational deployment is imminent. The Hwasong-15 and -17 launched in February and March were liquid-fuel based. While liquid fuel requires a lengthy fuel injection process before launch, solid fuel is easier to store and handle, offering the advantage of quick launch in emergencies.

Representative Tae said, “This year, as the weapons trade between North Korea and Russia has intensified, North Korea’s ballistic missile technology has rapidly advanced. They recently put a military reconnaissance satellite into orbit and succeeded in high-altitude entry with the solid-fuel-based ICBM Hwasong-18 that was launched this time.”

He also put forth an analysis that North Korea is repeatedly making nuclear threats with the potential re-election of President Trump in mind, aiming to secure a favorable position in nuclear disarmament negotiations. Representative Tae said, “In Trump’s election camp, there’s talk of ‘if re-elected, we’ll negotiate nuclear disarmament with North Korea to alleviate the threat to the U.S., and the U.S. should focus on containing China.’ For Kim Jong Un, Trump’s re-election is another opportunity.”

He added, “Their strategy involves constant nuclear pressure to gain leverage in future nuclear disarmament talks during the election period. Trump claims, ‘President Biden hasn’t solved anything. If elected, I have a good relationship with Kim Jong Un and will resolve it.’ This approach leaves them no option but to acknowledge North Korea as a nuclear-armed state.”

However, our military believes that North Korea has not yet perfected ICBM technology. Shin Won Sik, the Minister of Defense, recently assessed in a report on current issues to the National Defense Committee of the National Assembly that the operational deployment of the solid-fuel ICBM Hwasong-18 is overstated. He said, “Even the U.S. and South Korea, which have high technology, can perform reconnaissance satellite missions about 5-6 months after launch. The fact that North Korea claims to do it about ten days after launch is an excessive exaggeration that does not consider technical capabilities.”

By. Hyun Ju Park