US Expert: North Korea’s Provocations as Alarming as 1950, Is War on the Horizon?

North Korea’s Recent Ballistic Missile Launch and Growing Concerns
Description of the Recent Missile Launch and Past Artillery Firing Incidents

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared South Koreans as “our enemies” during his on-site guidance at a crucial munitions factory on the 8th and 9th, reported the Korean Central News Agency on the 10th. / Yonhap News

North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the East Sea on the 14th, marking a week since a three-day consecutive artillery firing provocation, including Baengnyeongdo and Yeonpyeongdo islands, from the 5th to the 7th of the current month. U.S. experts on North Korea are sounding alarm bells, warning of the possibility of North Korea initiating hostilities against South Korea.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff sent a text notification to the Ministry of National Defense press corps, confirming that “North Korea fired an unidentified ballistic missile into the East Sea.” This comes about a month after North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from Pyongyang into the East Sea on December 18th of the previous year.

Kim Jong Un’s Remarks and Escalating Threats

According to reports from the Labor Newspaper and other sources, Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s leader, characterized the inter-Korean relationship as a “hostile, warring state” after last year’s plenary meeting. Furthermore, during an inspection of a significant military facility from the 8th to the 9th, he escalated threats, stating, “We will not unilaterally decide a major incident by overwhelming power on the Korean Peninsula, but we have no intention of avoiding war.”

According to a recent report in the Labor Newspaper, North Korea has initiated a significant policy shift regarding South Korea, which includes the dismantling of various organizations involved in inter-Korean civilian exchanges. The newspaper detailed that officials held a meeting to enact Kim’s new policy direction, where they decided to disband several key organizations. These include the North Korean Committee for Implementing the June 15th Joint Declaration, the North Korean Headquarters of the National Unification Alliance, the National Reconciliation Council, and the Dangun National Unification Council. This move represents a notable change in North Korea’s approach to relations with South Korea.

Moreover, North Korea’s state-run radio station, Pyongyang Broadcasting, has ceased transmission since the night of the 12th, and the website National Grand Solidarity, associated with Pyongyang Broadcasting, is currently inaccessible. Pyongyang Broadcasting has been known for broadcasting content aimed at inciting the ‘People’s Democratic Revolution’ since the 1960s and for delivering ‘random number’ messages to instruct spies in the South.

Experts’ Concerns Over the Risk of Conflict Initiation

U.S. experts specializing in North Korea have expressed deep concern about the prospect of North Korea initiating conflict with South Korea in light of the ongoing military provocations and the breakdown of dialogue and exchanges. In an article published on the 11th (local time) in the North Korean specialist medium ’38 North,’ Robert Carlin, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, and Professor Siegfried Hecker warned, “It may appear overly dramatic. Still, we believe Kim Jong Un is strategically inclined to wage war, much like his grandfather did in 1950.” They added, “We cannot precisely predict when or how the conflict will commence, but the present risk surpasses the typical warnings issued by Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo against Pyongyang’s provocations.”

They also emphasized, “We should not dismiss the war preparation messages that have been surfacing in North Korean media since early last year as mere empty rhetoric.”