North Korea’s War Drums: Experts Weigh In on Kim Jong Un’s Strategic Calculations
Former US and Korean officials express “skepticism” over North Korea’s potential decision to go to war
Experts, “Unless Kim Jong Un makes a suicidal level decision, war is unlikely”
North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un is receiving applause from military reconnaissance satellite development personnel (archive photo). ⓒKorean Central News Agency
Opinions vary on the possibility of North Korea’s public declaration of “Occupation of South Korea” and the potential outbreak of war.
While some foreign experts express the view that Kim Jong Un has decided on an actual war, considering North Korea’s strategic objectives, the possibility seems remote.
Considering North Korea’s long-standing desire to be recognized as a “nuclear state” by the international community and to alleviate economic sanctions, the recent “verbal bomb” is seen as an escalation of tension intended for negotiations with the US.
Kim Sung Han, former head of the National Security Office, said at a forum on “Enhancing cooperation between Korea, the United States, and Japan” co-hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Korea Foundation (KF) in Washington D.C. on the 12th (local time), “I don’t think North Korea has made a strategic decision to go to war.”
He stated, “I believe North Korea’s strategic calculations have not changed.” This points to the unchanging plan to strengthen nuclear missiles such as intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and use them as leverage in negotiations with the U.S.
Sung Kim, former U.S. Special Representative for North Korea, also agreed with the opinion that “there has been no fundamental change in North Korea’s approach,” saying, “I do not believe [North Korea] has decided to go to war with South Korea. They also know that would be a big mistake.”
Park Won Gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University, also said in a recent commentary from the East Asia Institute (EAI), “There is no chance that North Korea will attempt to go to war with South Korea,” and “Unless Kim Jong Un makes a nearly suicidal decision, he cannot go to war.”
Since the US and South Korea have publicly declared “the end of the North Korean regime in the event of nuclear use,” it will not be easy for North Korean leader Kim to press the nuclear button, ready to eliminate the North Korean leadership, including himself.
In the end, North Korea’s repeated threats of being able to use nuclear missiles are seen as aimed mainly at creating tension ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
Professor Park said, “After the U.S. presidential election in November this year, I think [North Korea] is preparing for a match with the U.S. in the first half of next year,” and “To do so, it needs to create tension throughout this year and maximize its presence.”
The fact that North Korea has raised the level of its remarks by stating that it will “completely occupy South Korea by attacking with nuclear missiles in the event of a war outbreak” is also explained in the same context.
Above all, from North Korea’s perspective, there is a high possibility of hoping for the election of former President Donald Trump, who has a personal rapport, rather than President Joe Biden, who insists on “unconditional dialogue.”
Accordingly, there is a prediction that the nuclear test card could be pulled out ahead of the U.S. presidential election so that former President Trump can advertise the “failure” of President Biden’s North Korea policy.
Professor Park said, “If Kim Jong Un thinks he will take Trump’s side in the U.S. presidential election, there is a possibility of a nuclear test before November,” and “It’s about enabling Trump to advertise that Biden’s North Korea policy has completely failed.
In fact, Alexander Matsegora, Russia’s ambassador to North Korea, has been consistently raising the possibility of a seventh nuclear test. Despite the ongoing border blockade in North Korea due to the spread of COVID-19, Ambassador Matsegora has stayed on-site, informing the outside world of North Korea’s position.
In interviews with Russian media reported on the 7th and 10th, Ambassador Matsegora mentioned that if U.S. provocations continue, North Korea could conduct a nuclear test to strengthen its defense capabilities.
He said, “It’s an undesirable scenario,” but also added, “If such an event (North Korean nuclear test) happens, the responsibility lies entirely with the US and its allies.”
This is equivalent to Russia, an official nuclear power in the international community, tacitly approving North Korea’s illegal nuclear development. North Korea has been emphasizing the “legitimacy” of its nuclear development for defensive purposes and to secure self-defense capabilities.
Meanwhile, the government has stated that it does not rule out the possibility of North Korea’s seventh nuclear test.
Lee Sung Jun, head of the Public Affairs Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said, “North Korea’s nuclear test is a political decision that can be carried out at any time,” and “We are keeping a close eye on related facilities. There is nothing to explain at the moment.”
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