North Korea’s Ongoing Threat: What’s Kim Really Up To? Separating Fact from Fiction – Part 1
The peninsula war theory is spreading domestically and abroad, as Kim Jong Un, leader of North Korea, defined South Korea as an immutable primary enemy and openly mentioned territorial occupation and pacification in case of emergencies, also continuing the provocation with the test launching of new weapons such as hypersonic missiles and long-range cruise missiles. The opposition party leader even mentioned in the Lunar New Year greeting video that he worries about whether a war might break out. Let’s look at how likely North Korea’s war provocation is.
The heightened threat level from Kim Jong Un and the Korean Peninsula War Theory
Kim Jong Un reiterated his threatening rhetoric against the South during his congratulatory visit to the Ministry of National Defense on the founding day of the Korean People’s Army, the 8th of last month. He emphasized once again that South Korea is the primary enemy.
According to a report from the Rodong Sinmun, Kim Jong Un said in a speech at the Ministry of National Defense, “Not long ago, our party and government defined the divided history and confrontation history of our nation, and the South Korean quislings, as the most harmful and the immutable primary enemy, and decided to occupy and pacify their territories in case of emergencies. It is the right measure for the eternal safety of our country and future peace and stability.”
Kim Jong Un previously removed the Three Principles of National Reunification(Independence, Peacefulness, Great National Unity) and the Teachings of the Forefathers from the constitution and defined South Korea as the first enemy country and a country at war. He also started to liquidate the inter-Korean civilian exchange organizations and groups. Kim Jong Un also ordered to “accelerate preparation for a great event to pacify the entire territory of South Korea, including nuclear power, in case of emergencies.” This was a notable mention as it differed in dimension and nature.
Continuous warnings of North Korea’s war provocation possibility by U.S. experts on the pro-dialogue side
The Korean Peninsula War Theory that has been highlighted domestically and abroad this year can be said to have been triggered by a joint article published on the North Korean specialist media 38 North by Robert Carlin, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in the United States, and Siegfried Hecker, a professor emeritus at Stanford University, on the 11th of last month. They claimed that “the situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than ever since early June 1950” and that “when Kim Jong Un will pull the trigger is vague, but the level of danger has surpassed the daily warnings of Korea, the U.S., and Japan.” They also said, “It may sound overly dramatic, but we believe Kim Jong Un has strategically decided to wage war, as his grandfather (Kim Il Sung) did in 1950.”
Several former senior U.S. government officials have also warned of the possibility of North Korea’s physical provocation. The New York Times (NYT) quoted multiple White House officials on the 25th of last month, saying, “North Korea is likely to take some kind of deadly military action against South Korea in a few months,” amplifying the Korean Peninsula War Theory. Interestingly, many of the U.S. experts who warned of the possibility of North Korea’s war provocation, including Professor Hecker of Stanford University, are so-called pro-dialogue with North Korea.
So, how likely is North Korea’s war provocation? First, we must look at the full-scale war and local provocation separately. A full-scale war, like the Russian army’s invasion movement in the Ukraine war, must show signs in advance. The movement of troops and equipment is inevitable, and ammunition and fuel must be stocked to a certain level. However, according to what the South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities have identified, there are no such peculiar signs.
Most Commented