Japan’s Military Buildup Reflects Rising East Asian Tensions with China

Escalating Tensions with China
Development of New Cruise Missiles
Key to Retaliatory Capabilities

Tensions are escalating between China and Japan in the waters surrounding Okinawa, located in Japan’s southernmost region. Despite having the United States as an ally, Japan finds itself at the forefront of any potential conflict with China, as it would have to hold the line until the arrival of the main U.S. fleet.

Consequently, Japan is ramping up its military capabilities to match the changing geopolitical landscape in East Asia. Central to Japan’s strategic direction, which is increasingly taking shape despite suspicions of a covert pre-emptive strike, is the development of various missile platforms. These platforms, known collectively as “retaliatory capabilities,” aim to intercept long-range enemy attacks and strike back at the launch sites to eliminate them. A vital component of this strategy is the new cruise missile that Japan has begun to develop earnestly.

Strengthening Island Defense
Improving Overall Missile Performance

The islands stretching from Japan’s southernmost point to the vicinity of Taiwan serve as a critical buffer and defense base for Japan’s security. However, China’s ongoing naval training and surveillance activities near Taiwan continue to violate these islands’ sovereignty. Japan perceives that the scope of China’s military activities could expand to Japan at any time. Thus, Japan intends to deter China by deploying new missiles on these islands.

The key features of the new cruise missile are an expanded range, enhanced survivability, and improved accuracy. The missile currently under development has a range that has increased significantly from 200km (123 miles) to over 1,000km (621 miles). Its low radar cross-section, excellent maneuverability, and speed of Mach 0.8 significantly reduce the chances of interception. Moreover, integrating infrared and radio frequency technology in a dual-mode seeker promises high accuracy.

Developed for diverse platforms
Escalating tension in Asia

Japan plans to develop a ground-launched version of its new missile, which experts expect to rival the renowned American Tomahawk missile. Additionally, Japan intends to create submarine, airborne, and shipborne platform versions of this missile. These developments would enable Japan to counterattack using various options after intercepting enemy missiles.

Even Japan, whose military buildup is most sensitive to other East Asian countries, has joined this arms race. This indicates that the military tensions in East Asia have crossed a line where they can no longer be considered a temporary phenomenon. It seems inevitable that this international relationship, comprised of major powers such as Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea, and the United States, is heading in an unpredictable direction.