Will North Korea Benefit Most from the Ukraine War? Weapons Upgrade and Combat Experience

North Korea, which has repeatedly threatened nuclear attacks and strengthened its military capabilities, is raising concerns about potentially becoming the “biggest beneficiary” of the Ukraine war. Observers suggest that through military cooperation with Russia, North Korea could enhance its weapons systems and gain real combat experience.

Senior Research Fellow Lee Cheol of the Peace Foundation said in a webinar hosted by the Far East Institute of Kyungnam University on the 13th, “I believe North Korea is strengthening its will to possess and use nuclear weapons by watching the Russia-Ukraine war,” and “In the short term, it will further refine ‘nuclear power completion,’ and in the medium to long term, it may aim to develop conventional weapons.”

The senior researcher said that North Korea wanted to receive supplies from Russia, such as air defense radar with a detection range of over 1,000㎞ (621 miles), S-400 surface-to-air missiles, and evaluated, “For North Korea, which cannot secure fighter jets, the interception system is most urgently needed.”

However, he explained that Russia has been reluctant to provide ‘modern weapons’ due to concerns about North Korea’s possible invasion. In fact, in 2015, former Minister of the People’s Armed Forces of North Korea, Hyon Yong Chol, tried to receive weapons supplies during his visit to Russia but failed and later faced internal issues and purges.

The problem is that changes are detected in Russia’s stance after the Ukraine war. Observations suggest that North Korea could move swiftly, as President Vladimir Putin told the possibility of advanced weapons support to Western countries after the successful launch of a hypersonic missile last May.

The senior researcher predicted, “North Korea will actively utilize the phase in which Russia provides excellent weapons to Western countries and receives other support in return.”

Furthermore, he elaborated that aside from a range of weapon systems like 4.5th-generation fighter jets and submarines, there is a strong likelihood of acquiring “military equipment for weapon production and manufacturing facilities.”

It’s worth emphasizing that this assessment suggests improving the overall industrial capacity by securing vital resources, including special steel and metal additives, from Russia and various facilities. Kim Jong Un has underscored his dedication to advancing defense economy projects through frequent visits to military factories.

The senior researcher said, “Didn’t Japan get a chance to rebuild by receiving orders for American weapons during the 6·25 war?” and “North Korea will also utilize the opportunity.”

Kim Jong Un and President Vladimir Putin ⓒKorean Central News Agency

In addition, there is an assessment that North Korea could gain real combat experience by riding on Russia’s back.

The senior researcher said, “One of the most important points where North Korea can benefit from this war is mastering modern warfare,” and emphasized, “North Korea has no commanders and soldiers who have participated in modern wars since the Vietnam War and the Middle East War.” He explained that the Ukraine war could be a “golden opportunity” to solve the weak point of the North Korean military.

In particular, there is a need to keep an eye on future trends, as there have been cases where North Korean workers who were in Russia during the Chechen War were deployed to the battlefield.

Suppose Russia is pushed into a defensive position due to the persistent support of Ukraine by Western countries, including the United States. In that case, there is a forecast that it could offer considerable incentives to North Korea and request troop deployment.

The senior researcher said, “(North Korean) soldiers could go to (Russia) as workers, receive uniforms and weapons locally, and participate in the war.”

However, there is a point that it could be a disaster for North Korea if the support of the United States and other Western countries weakens. It is interpreted to mean that if Russia can manage the battlefield alone, North Korea’s role will not be significant.