Rising Tensions Between China and Philippines: Will the U.S. Intervene?

Recently, there has been a standoff between the Chinese and Philippine coast guards in the South China Sea. Philippine fishermen are on high alert./Huanqiu Shibao (Global Times).

Tensions are running high between China and the Philippines, whose relationship has soured due to the sovereignty dispute in the South China Sea. It seems possible that unexpected gunfire could echo in the South China Sea.

According to sources of the Beijing media on the 21st, knowledgeable about international issues, the relationship between the two countries was not too bad even when Rodrigo Duterte, a pro-China former president, was in office in the Philippines, despite the conflict over the South China Sea sovereignty issue. However, the situation changed after Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office as president in late June 2022. The relationship started to freeze as the Philippines formed a strong alliance with the United States.

The Philippines has further provoked China by reinforcing joint patrols in the South China Sea and joining the joint military training with the United States since late last year. China did not sit idly by. As a response, it deployed naval and air force troops for a patrol. Even the Southern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army announced earlier this month through its official social media account that “it would organize naval and air force troops to conduct regular patrols in the South China Sea,” openly pressuring the Philippines.

Global Times (GT), an English-language newspaper under the party’s official publication, People’s Daily, went a step further, analyzing that “this patrol is a measure targeting the provocative actions of the United States and the Philippines,” provoking the United States too. The Foreign Ministry also raised its voice, urging the United States and the Philippines to stop their irresponsible actions immediately.

The situation became more complicated when Philippine President Marcos congratulated the elected candidate, Lai Ching-te, of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan on his election as the 16th president. As China never compromises on the principle of the “One China policy,” it was inevitable to make them angry. They immediately took action. First, at the regular briefing of the Foreign Ministry conducted by spokesman Mao Ning on the 16th, they warned, saying, “The Philippines has seriously violated the principle of One China policy and the joint communique on the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries. We express strong dissatisfaction and firmly oppose it.”

They then summoned the Philippine ambassador of Beijing to demand an explanation. It was not for nothing that Mao, the spokesman, unprecedentedly reiterated at the briefing on the 18th, “China will never accept any provocation on the Taiwan issue. We will firmly retaliate.” Of course, the Philippines did not back down. The Department of Defense expressed its strong will to counter China in a statement on the 17th.

Given the current atmosphere, it seems not easy for the relationship between the two countries to get out of the rigid phase for the time being, as the stance of the Philippines, backed by the United States, is not subduable. It can also be said that China is ready to teach the Philippines, which is no match for China in terms of power, a lesson. However, considering that the United States is watching it with eyes wide open, it does not seem easy. This appears to be China’s dilemma.