2024 Election Shakeup: Biden Loses Ground in States He Won in 2020

President Joe Biden of the United States has suffered a significant defeat against former President Donald Trump in swing state polls.

According to the New York Times (NYT) and others on the 5th (local time), former President Trump comfortably beat President Biden in 5 out of 6 key battlegrounds for the 2024 election. If the poll results hold, there is a high likelihood that former President Trump will secure approximately 300 electoral votes.

Based on the telephone poll conducted by the New York Times (NYT) and Siena College from the 22nd of last month to the 3rd of this month, with over 3,600 voters in six swing states, the support rate for former President Trump was about 48%, while President Biden’s was 44%. The six swing states were Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

These six states are regions that have not shown a specific tendency in past presidential elections, with at least one or more changes in the supporting party or where the total vote difference was less than 5%. President Biden won in all of these places in the 2020 election.

Three years later, public opinion has completely reversed. President Biden barely won in Wisconsin with 47%, just 2% more than President Trump’s 45%, but he lost in all five states. These losses were beyond the margin of error, with an average of 6 points. In Nevada, he was even behind by about 9 points.

The NYT analyzed that voters “cannot trust President Biden in economics, foreign policy, and immigration policy,” and his support rate “dropped from all levels, including Palestinians and some Jews,” especially after the Israel-Palestine war.

Shocked by the results, Democratic insiders have doubts about Biden’s re-election. They paid particular attention to the change in the approval rating among young people who strongly supported President Biden. The biggest reason for the young people’s withdrawal of support is his age. In this survey, 71% of young people said Biden’s age is too high to hold the presidency.

If support from the multiethnic and young demographic groups drops, Biden’s re-election is virtually impossible. David Axelrod, a Democratic election strategist and former senior adviser to the White House, wrote on social media X (old Twitter), “If Biden runs for re-election, there is no other competitor to stop him within the Democratic Party.” He argued, “The only way is for him to retire voluntarily.”