RFK Jr.’s Candidacy Creates Stir in Presidential Race: What Explains This?

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“I declare today (October 10th) that I will run as an independent candidate.”

As the U.S. presidential election, set for November 5th next year, approaches with less than a year to go, a figure has emerged that is causing both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump to be on edge. This figure is none other than Robert Kennedy Jr., a member of the political dynasty, the Kennedys. The Democrat-turned-independent candidate has risen as a powerful rival threatening both former and current presidents, appearing in major polls just a month after his independent candidacy declaration.

According to the results of a poll conducted by major foreign media and polling agency Ipsos, released on the 15th, 20% of respondents chose Robert Kennedy Jr. when asked who they would vote for in the presidential election if President Biden, former President Trump, and Robert Kennedy Jr. were candidates.

What is noteworthy here is the change in the approval ratings of the former and current presidents. In a two-way race, the two had approval ratings of 51% and 49%, respectively. However, their approval ratings dropped to 32% and 30% in a three-way race, respectively. Considering that the response rate for ‘will not vote’ was 8%, and ‘don’t know or refuse to answer’ was 10%, Robert Kennedy Jr. has threatened both President Biden and former President Trump by lowering their approval ratings.

When criticism is pouring out that it is boring for the obvious two candidates, President Biden and former President Trump, to have a ‘rematch,’ Robert Kennedy Jr. has become the representative candidate of the ‘third zone.’ He declared his independent candidacy, emphasizing, “The Democrats are afraid that I will ruin Biden’s election, and the Republicans are afraid that I will ruin Trump’s election. Yes, I intend to ruin both of them.”

Kennedy’s Role as a Unique Figure

Robert Kennedy Jr. can shake both major candidates because he is a unique figure who, while being a Democrat, has also won the hearts of Republican voters.

As a lawyer and environmental activist, he has gained worldwide attention by causing a major controversy with his anti-vaccine movement. In 2005, he actively advocated the claim that there is a causal relationship between vaccines and autism, which became a problem. At the time, he even wrote articles for Rolling Stone, but his claim was scientifically incorrect, leading to the removal of his articles online.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, he often shared inaccurate vaccine information, leading to suspending his social media accounts. He acted as if he were a far-right politician. He even supported the conspiracy theory that the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and former National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) director Anthony Fauci were trying to make money using vaccines during the pandemic.

Republicans’ Mixed Reception

As a result of his actions, he lost the support of Democrats but gained favor with Republicans. In April, Robert Kennedy Jr. declared his candidacy as a Democrat, often criticizing President Biden and the current Democratic leadership. In response, former President Trump said as recently as September, “I like him a lot. I’ve known him for a long time.”

That’s not to say that the Republicans are unconditionally welcoming him. When he declared his independent candidacy, the Republican National Committee released a statement titled “23 Reasons to Oppose Him,” pointing out his past actions, such as opposing fossil fuel extraction. While some Republicans may like his activities, his independent candidacy and becoming a rival can only be an uncomfortable factor for the Republicans.

Kennedy’s Family Background

Robert Kennedy Jr. was a member of the famous Kennedy political dynasty in the United States. He is also the fourth person from the Kennedys to run for president. Including his uncle, Robert Sargent Shriver Jr., who did not receive the Democratic nomination in 1976, he is the fifth in his family.

However, due to his unique history, members of the Kennedy family are distancing themselves from him. Born in 1954 and now 69 years old, Kennedy Jr. is the nephew of former U.S. President John F. Kennedy, who was assassinated in 1963, and the son of former Senator Robert F. Kennedy, who was also killed by a gunshot in 1968. He is the third of eleven siblings.

Four of his siblings, Rory Kennedy, Kerry Kennedy, Joseph P. Kennedy II, and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, tried to prevent his candidacy by issuing an official statement as soon as Robert Kennedy Jr. declared his independent candidacy on October 10th. They stated, “Bobby (Kennedy Jr.’s nickname) shares the same name as our father, but does not share the same values, vision, or judgment,” and “We strongly criticize his candidacy and think it would be hazardous for our country.”

Also, Kennedy Jr.’s cousin, Caroline Kennedy, is currently the U.S. ambassador to Australia, his aunt-in-law, Victoria Reggie Kennedy, is the U.S. ambassador to Austria, and his nephew, Joe Kennedy, serves as a special envoy to Northern Ireland. They are all working in the current government, which Kennedy Jr. has strongly criticized.

Kennedy’s Troubled Past

Robert Kennedy Jr. was a troublemaker even in his youth. Reports say that during his school days, a boarding school expelled him after his arrest on suspicion of marijuana possession. Despite this, he earned a bachelor’s degree in American history and literature from Harvard University in 1976, studied at the London School of Economics, and earned a Juris Doctor degree from the University of Virginia School of Law in 1982.

In 1982, he began working as an assistant district attorney in Manhattan and failed the bar exam the following year. Authorities later arrested him for drug overdose and heroin possession, leading to his sentence of community service and two years of probation. After passing the New York State Bar exam in 1985, people say he lived as a lawyer and environmental activist.

Robert Kennedy Jr. has married three times and fathered six children.

Impact on the Presidential Race

As Robert Kennedy Jr. began to receive significant attention in polls, the world focused on how the U.S. presidential race would unfold. While the likelihood of him being elected as the next president immediately is not high, he is in a situation where he can steal the approval ratings of the major candidates, so both parties must pay close attention to his actions.

Some evaluate that he has the potential to become the independent candidate with the most support since businessman Ross Perot, who ran in the 1992 presidential election and recorded about 19% of the vote. At the same time, it is also pointed out that evaluating his potential as a presidential candidate is difficult.

In addition to Robert Kennedy Jr., African-American social activist, and progressive theologian Cornel West (70), mentioned as a Green Party candidate, Jill Stein (73), who ran twice for the Green Party, and Senator Joe Manchin (76) from West Virginia, known as the “opposition within the ruling party,” are emerging as prominent third-zone candidates. They pose a threat to the re-election paths of former and current presidents.

By. Jung Hyun Jin